With OPEC and global excess oil productive capacity poised to fall to near zero over the next six months, the risk of any global oil supply disruption becomes a BIG, BIG DEAL going forward. Even within OPEC, there are many uncertainties when it comes to sustainable production including: 1) How much spare capacity does Saudi Arabia have?; 2) How will the return of U.S. sanctions impact Iranian exports?; 3) What happens to other OPEC countries whose production has been steadily declining for years (including Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Qatar, and Venezuela)?; 4) Speaking of Venezuela, how long before PdVSA begins to barter crude for emergency supplies of toilet paper?; and 5) What will happen to what is (arguably) the most unpredictable OPEC producer – Libya?
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